After trying a not-quite-right combo (now #4), and getting lots of advice to improve it, I decided to try a different shirt under the burgundy sweatshirt. However, nothing worked. So I went for invisible layers instead, and I'm much happier. I think I must have just had too much going on.
So what do you think - better?
(#3 is with the coat I'm wearing - a cobalt puffer, from Good Will, of course).